LIPI Predicts Six Party Escaped Parliamentary Threshold

INDUSTRY.co.id - Jakarta - Indonesian Institute of Science (LIPI) Survey estimates that only six political parties pass parliamentary threshold or parliamentary threshold in 2019 election, but anything can happen because there are still 26.1 percent of respondents chose not to answer.

"Our survey shows only six political parties that reach the parliamentary threshold above 4 percent, because the provisions of Law number 7 of 2017 on General Elections mention like that," said LIPI senior researcher Syamsuddin Haris in the presentation of a survey titled "Political Participation, National Leadership and Period Home of Democracy ", in Jakarta, Thursday (07/19/2010)

He explained that the results of the LIPI survey showed only two parties whose vote above 10 percent was PDI Perjuangan first with 24.1 percent, then Golkar Party got 10.2 percent, while Gerindra Party got 9.1 percent.

Furthermore, PKB earned 6 percent, PPP 4.9 percent, and Democrat Party 4.4 percent.

Meanwhile, the parties currently in parliament, but are predicted to not qualify in the 2019 election are PKS (3.7 percent), PAN (2.3 percent), Nasdem Party (2.1 percent) and Hanura Party (1.2 percent).

"Only six parties are predicted to pass the threshold of parliament although there are still many respondents who have not answered and have not made a choice," he said.

Syamsuddin said 26.1 percent of the vote would likely change the survey results if in reality it determines his political choice of any political party.

If that happens according to him, it could be the number of political parties that pass the threshold of parliament more than six political parties, although predicted no more than the 2014 election.

"Respondents who have not answered it is still a lot because it is still hesitating or because of low trust to political parties and have not decided the choice," he said.

Syamsuddin said the aim of raising the threshold of parliament so that the number of political parties in the House of Representatives is less so that the performance is more effective.

Article 414 paragraph (1) of the Election Law stipulates that political parties participating in the election must fulfill the threshold of vote acquisition of at least 4 percent of the total national valid votes to be included in the determination of the seats of members of the DPR RI.

The LIPI survey was conducted on April 26-May 9, 2018 in all provinces in Indonesia with 2,100 respondents who have the right to vote.

The survey methodology uses "multistage random sampling" with a "margin of error of 2.14 percent. (Ant)