Indef Estimates Trade Balance June 2018 Surplus Up to US $ 600 Million

By : Ridwan And Aldi Firhand. A | Monday, July 16 2018 - 21:38 IWST

Illustration of Export (ist)
Illustration of Export (ist)

INDUSTRY.co.id - Jakarta, Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) estimates the trade balance in June 2018 to surplus US $ 400 million - US $ 600 million Surplus is expected to occur due to long holiday Lebaran, so there is not much production activity and domestic trade.

"The decline in imports due to the long holiday period push the trade surplus," said Indef Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara economist in Jakarta, Monday (16/07/2018).

However, Bhima continued, the surplus is classified as pseudo because it does not mean a significant increase in non-oil exports compared to the previous month.

According to him, the lack of import activity during June 2018 is also caused by the steps of entrepreneurs who have already accumulated imports of raw materials, consumer goods and capital goods to anticipate the Eid holiday in the previous month.

However, the record is related to oil and gas deficit in June 2018 which is expected to swell due to fluctuations in world oil prices and the weakening of the rupiah.

While in July 2018, trade-traded deficit has the potential to increase again in line with the normal business activity.

Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia sees the potential for Indonesia's balance sheet surplus in June 2018 to be more optimistic. Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo predicts Indonesia's trade surplus to US $ 1 billion in June 2018.

Previously, Perry calculated the value of Indonesian trade transactions only over US $ 900 million. "We expect it to be based on week one and week two data," Perry said recently.

By the end of Eid, imports of strategic tools for infrastructure and food necessities have increased as a seasonal factor. With the start of easing of imports, the trade balance will return surplus. Besides imports easing, trade balance surpluses are supported by improved export performance.

Despite a surplus trade balance in June, Perry said its current account deficit (CAD) in the second quarter was higher than the previous period. The trigger is more due to seasonal factors. Then, he predicted the surplus would fall in the third quarter.

Thus, overall, the deficit in 2018 is estimated to be no more than 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). This figure is higher than a year ago, the current account deficit of 1.7% against GDP.

News Comment

Today's Industry

President Jokowi Joins Tree Planting Activity in Pulogadung Industrial Area

Rabu, 29 November 2023 - 20:06 WIB

President Jokowi Joins Tree Planting Activity in Pulogadung Industrial Area

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo Wednesday (11/29) participated in the Joint Tree Planting Movement at the PT Jakarta Industrial Estate Pulogadung (JIEP) Forest in the Pulogadung Industrial…

President Jokowi Calls for Tree-Planting Movement in Anticipation of Climate Change

Rabu, 29 November 2023 - 20:02 WIB

President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo has called on people across the country to promote tree-planting movement as part of efforts to tackle climate change and global warming.

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has called on people across the country to promote tree-planting movement as part of efforts to tackle climate change and global warming. “This tree-planting…

Intellectual Property Drives Technological Innovation to Address Climate Change

Rabu, 29 November 2023 - 19:56 WIB

Intellectual Property Drives Technological Innovation to Address Climate Change

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia and the Permanent Representation of Indonesia (PTRI) to the United Nations, World Trade Organization, and Other International Organizations…

The Indonesian Team Outstanding Achievement at the MERC

Rabu, 29 November 2023 - 19:50 WIB

The Indonesian Team Outstanding Achievement at the Mining Emergency Response Competition (MERC)

In the Mining Emergency Response Competition (MERC) held at Langley Park, Perth (24-26/11), the INA Garuda Mine Rescue Team achieved remarkable success for Indonesia. The INA Garuda Mine Rescue…

Minister of Trade and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Meets Discussed the Progress of the IEU-CEPA Negotiations

Rabu, 29 November 2023 - 19:45 WIB

Minister of Trade and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Meets Discussed the Progress of the IEU-CEPA Negotiations

Minister of Trade, Zulkifli Hasan received a visit from the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Pahala Mansury at the Ministry of Trade Office, Jakarta, Wednesday (29 Nov). The meeting discussed…